BY MAHESH SHARMA
With Jammu and Ladakh happy being a part of the Indian nation, does plebiscite has any relevance. Lets analyse. Recent events indicate that the issue of plebiscite continues to haunt Kashmiris and many well-meaning people from other parts of India as a means to satisfy the majority population of Jammu and Kashmir. The “Azadi” march and frequent references to collection of a sizable number of Muslims in Srinagar at Idgah are being taken as an indication that the demand for a plebiscite reflects the aspirations of a sizable majority of the state’s population consisting od Jammu, Ladakh and Kashmir. On the other hand, the well meaning Indians including leading journalists feel that India stands on a morally weak ground by insisting on the Simla Agreement of July 2nd 1972 and rejecting a referendum. They also feel that this is the only way for the people of J&K to articulate their right to self-determination. However, Kashmiris in Srinagar city and few journalists calling for a plebiscite in J&K does not mean that the plebiscite is an easy and a viable option. The discussion below shall clearly indicate, that the concept has lost its meaning with the passage of time.
The U.N. resolutions passed in 1948 calling for a referendum were meant to apply to the whole of the former kingdom of Jammu and Kashmir, as it existed with Maharaja Hari Singh. Presently, that area is divided between India, Pakistan and China. To manage a referendum within the populations of areas being controlled by two nations other than India seems a distant dream.
Discussing the population aspect of the area with India, in the event of a referendum being held only in J&K with India, we must realize that it consists of Jammu, Ladakh and Kashmir with a religious mix of populations. Contrary to normal national belief, Jammu & Kashmir is not a state where only Kashmiri Muslims live. It is a multi-ethnic, multi-religious state with 64% Muslims, 33% Hindus, and 3% Buddhists, Sikhs, Christians and others. At the outset, 36% population (33+3) is already wedded to the Indian nation. The three regions are also culturally and geographically distinct and have different aspirations. Further analysis indicates that fifteen per cent of the state’s Muslims live in the provinces of Jammu and Ladakh; being non-Kashmiris, they stand behind J&K’s association with India. This makes it about 51% of the total population of the sate. Of the state’s 49% who reside in the Kashmir province, about 13% are Shia Muslims. Shia Muslims do not wish to have anything to do with Sunni-dominated Pakistan, knowing full well the fate that awaits them there. This is also true of the Shias of Kargil who know of the poverty and degradation experienced by their ethnic siblings in Baltistan, a part of Pakistan occupied Kashmir referred to as the “Northern Areas”. Moreover, 14% of the people in Kashmir province are the pastoral nomadic Gujar and Bakarwal people. They are strong supporters of association with India. As far as non-Muslim groups are concerned there is no reason for them to even think about living outside multi-religious and secular India. We should also not forget the modern secular Muslim from Kashmir who wants to be a citizen of a modern democracy with unparalleled opportunities rather choosing the concept of a failed nation. So a plebiscite loses its meaning, even it is supposedly conducted in the J&K with India.
As far as the slogan of Azadi goes, according to the UN Resolution, the choice does not exist at all. The people were to be given the choice between acceding to India or Pakistan, but not of independence or Azadi. The resolution also required that Pakistan withdraw its troops first from its side of the region, followed by the bulk of the Indian forces, before a plebiscite were held, the willingness of that Pakistan has never expressed. Pakistan has also never mentioned the issue of plebiscite. As per a Dr. Syed Nazir Gilani in an article Thoughts on Plebiscite March recently, “…Kashmiri leaders to ask the Government of Pakistan why did it fail to raise the Kashmir question at the UN for 30 years and 9 months, that is, from 5 November 1965 to 15 September 1996, when it attracted rule 11 of procedure rules of UN Security Council and was clubbed with 50 other items for deletion. Kashmir is no more on UN Security Council agenda in the manner in which it continued to be for 48 years from 6 January 1948 to 15 September 1996. It is now subject to an annual reminder….. Kashmiri leaders who opted to sell General Musharraf’s 4-point formula and on 18 August 2008 had the cheek to lead the ‘Plebiscite March’ in Srinagar have to explain the valiant and trusting people, as to why General Musharraf skipped any reference to self-determination while he addressed the 61st Session of the UN General Assembly on 19 September 2006. Musharraf’s sales persons are answerable to the people as to why their regular host in cash and kind in Delhi, Riaz Mohammad Khan, foreign secretary, again betrayed the Constitution of Pakistan, the trust of the people of Kashmir and UN Charter obligations and did not make any reference to self-determination of the people of Kashmir while he addressed the 62nd Session of the UN General Assembly on 2 October 2007.”
In all, the concept clearly has no meaning in Jammu and Ladakh and shall lose its shine in the valley also.
Note: Data for population resourced from Jammu & Kashmir: Self-Determination and Secession (Excerpted from Asian Commentary, Vol. 1, No. 3, July-September 1999, Jammu, India)
Article appears in the Daily Mandate of Aug.29,2008
Mahesh Sharma is an independent commentator on J&K issue and may be contacted at maheshsharma.jk@gmail.com
Filed under: Articles by Mahesh Sharma, Current Affairs, Historical Facts, Hypothesis on Kashmir Solution, Legal Status, Dr.Syed Nazir Gilani, Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Pakistan, Plebiscite, Referendum, Self determination, UN Security Council
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